The Round of 32 is in the books, the field has been cut from 32 to 16, and the power rankings entering the knockout bracket proper carry a familiar name at the top. France, Argentina, Spain, Brazil and England lead the pack, but the story of the first knockout round is what fell away: Germany, the Netherlands and a slew of pre-tournament certainties are already gone.
France still on top
ESPN's post-Round-of-32 panel handed France 16 of 20 first-place votes, a margin that captures how decisively Les Bleus have controlled this tournament without ever looking fully extended. The 3-0 dismissal of Sweden in the Round of 32 was clinical, with Kylian Mbappe scoring twice to push his career World Cup tally to 18. The BBC called Didier Deschamps' side "united, free, brilliant," a verdict that matched the eye test.
The next assignment is Paraguay in Philadelphia on July 4. Paraguay arrive fresh off eliminating Germany on penalties, so the trap is set. France are heavy favourites. The danger is comfort.
Argentina and Messi's march
Lionel Messi leads the tournament with six goals and is the first player to score in seven consecutive World Cup matches. The defending champions sit second across ESPN, CBS Sports and NBC Sports power rankings, though the consensus caveat is that Argentina's production is "built almost entirely on Messi." Cabo Verde await in the Round of 16 on July 3 in Miami.
Mexico surges, Spain and Brazil lurk
The Athletic's latest power rankings slot Mexico inside the top six, reflecting a Round of 32 performance that has quieted some of the noise around El Tri. Spain sit third on most boards after sweeping their group with a controlled style that continues to draw admirers. Brazil face the most compelling match of the Round of 16 against Norway, a test that will reveal whether the Selecao's attack has the edge needed to go deep.
The heaviest exits
Germany's penalty shootout loss to Paraguay was the shock of the tournament. Julian Nagelsmann's side had never lost a World Cup shootout. Now they head home from a third straight underwhelming campaign. The Netherlands followed them out, beaten on penalties by Morocco after Issa Diop's stoppage-time equalizer. Morocco, the 2022 semifinalists, carry that momentum into a last-16 date with Canada.
The bracket ahead
The Round of 16 begins July 3 and runs through July 6, with the quarterfinals set for July 9-11. France's path to the final goes through Paraguay, then likely Canada or Morocco, then a semi-final that could feature Spain or England. Argentina's half of the draw opens with Cabo Verde and potentially Egypt or Australia. Brazil versus Norway on July 5 in East Rutherford is the pick of the slate.
Rankings after the Round of 32 rarely survive the Round of 16 intact. The bracket is thinning, the margins are shrinking, and every contender left can point to a reason the top spot is within reach. France own the votes. The rest own a chance to prove the votes wrong.
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